Huagong Technology (000988): Localization of laser equipment steadily promotes 5G optical modules is worth looking forward to

Huagong Technology (000988): Localization of laser equipment steadily promotes 5G optical modules is worth looking forward to

The 四川耍耍网 investment proposal combines the above two estimation methods. We believe that the company is reasonable and feasible at 22.

75-26.

00 yuan / share range, the sensitivity analysis estimates that the central price is 23.

24 yuan / share.

  We are optimistic about the company’s leading position in advanced laser manufacturing equipment and optical communications. It is expected that the company’s operating income in 2019-2021 will be 53.

48/65.

54/78.

7.2 billion yuan, net profit attributable to mothers was 5.

53/6.

51/7.

USD 5.8 billion, with annual growth rates of 95% / 18% / 17% (faster growth in 2019 is due to return on investment income in non-recurring profit and loss), and the current corresponding dynamic PE is 35/29/25, Maintaining the “Buy” rating risk tip 1, the risk that the global auto market is down and the industry is intensifying.

The downward pressure on the global economic environment has intensified, and the automotive market has been in a doldrums. Many of the company’s laser manufacturing equipment is used in the automotive processing and manufacturing sector. The sluggish demand in the automotive industry may shift to upstream equipment demand, resulting in less-than-expected demand and increased competition in 北京夜生活网 the industry; 2The risks of Sino-US trade friction on upstream chip procurement.

Most of the company’s optical devices purchase mid-to-high-end chips come from the United States, Japan and other companies. If Sino-US trade relations gradually deteriorate, it may have an adverse impact on the company’s upstream chip purchases.

  3. Macroeconomic downturn, 5G construction investment is less than expected risk.

The economic environment at home and abroad is still unstable, household consumption expectations are not strong, and the revenues of the three major operators are under pressure. The 5G network investment may be less than expected, which will have a certain impact on the company’s performance

China Life (601628): Bi-stable-stable expansion and stable interest rate risk exposure

China Life (601628): Bi-stable-stable expansion and stable interest rate risk exposure

The performance in the third quarter of 2019 exceeded expectations, and the scale advantage came to an end in September 2019. China Life’s performance was outstanding, and the scale advantage stood out. The average ROE reached 16.

66% (+10 targets), of which benefited from the recovery of the capital market and operating profit 重庆耍耍网 reached 62.1 billion (+144).

8%), benefiting from the adjustment of pre-tax deduction policy fees and commission expenses, net profit attributable to mothers reached 57.7 billion (+190).

4%).

Unique strategy: stable expansion and stable risk exposure In the “P & C Insurance: The Distance between Life Insurance and Buffett” published on October 25, one of the operational priorities of life insurance business is scale expansion.

China Life currently has both expected scale expansion and long-term expansion at the same time. For example, while launching a product with a high predetermined interest rate during the start-up period, it also reduced the product duration at the same time, which highlights the company’s strategic scale and really increases the company’s investment value.

The life insurance business grew at a high quality, and at the same time, it was able to expand. At the same time, (1) the company grew against the trend: realized premium income of 497 billion yuan (+6).

1%), of which the annual premium for the first year is 990 ppm (+4.

7%), renewal premium 3348 ppm (+5.

9%), while the value of new business increases by 20 per year.

4%; (2) Business structure continued to be optimized: the proportion of life insurance policies in new long-term insurance policies reached 98.

1% (+8.

45 units). At the same time, the premium paid in the first year of ten years and above accounted for 51% of the premium paid in the first year.

1% (+15.

72 units), and the surrender rate dropped by 1.

67% (-2.

(78 single); (3) The sales team’s efficient and assisted expansion: the total labor force of the sales team reached 1.95 million (+ 10%), and the total number of employees in the insurance channel reached 1.66 million (+15.

6%), and some of them have an annual increase in effective manpower of 37 per month.

4%.

Investment portfolio: scale expansion, structural optimization At the same time, the company’s investment assets reached 3.

4 trillion (+10.

At the same time, the company continued to strengthen asset and liability management, accumulate long-term fixed income assets, and optimize the investment portfolio structure.

Pioneer, the company flexibly grasps investment opportunities, realizing a total investment income of 1345 trillion and a total investment return of 5.

72% (+ 231 basis points), achieving a net investment income of 1,139 trillion, and a net investment return of 4.

83% (+21 basis points).

Investment suggestion: Maintain profit forecast and maintain “Buy” rating.

Expected embedded value in 2019-202132.

35/37.

35/42.

95, 15% / 15% / 15% a year, and currently corresponds to PEV = 1.

00x // 0.

87x / 0.

76x.

With the advent of the global interest rate reduction cycle and the advancement of the interim measures for asset and debt management, we are optimistic about the future growth of new orders and expected increase in life insurance companies.

Risk reminders: (1) the economic expectations are worsening; (2) the asset shortage is aggravated, leading to a rapid increase in reinvestment risks.

Guotai Junan (601211): 3Q19 performance changes due to falling investment

Guotai Junan (601211): 3Q19 performance changes due to falling investment

The 3Q19 results were basically in line with our expectations of Guotai Junan 1-3Q19 revenue for ten years + 23% to $ 20.6 billion, net profit attributable to mothers + 19% to $ 6.5 billion, corresponding to a return on net assets of +0 during the reporting period.

72ppt to 5.

19%, basically in line with our expectations, of which Shanghai Securities 15 disclosed in the monthly report.

The 300 million dividends have been replaced in the consolidated statement.

In 3Q, the net profit attributable to the mother in the single quarter exceeded + 2% /-24% to 1.5 billion, corresponding to a single season ROAE -0.

1ppt / ring ratio-0.

4ppt to 1.

2%; end-of-period leverage was -0.

2x to 3.

4 times.

In terms of expenses: 1) Adjusted management fee rate (excluding other business income in total revenue) -1.

7ppt / ring ratio +8.

5ppt to 53.

3%; 2) Current credit deduction value: 3Q19 2.

9 ‰ right.

8 in the second quarter of 19.

700 million).

  Development Trends Investment income declines with the market is the main reason for the ranking.

3Q investment returns are higher than -33% / mo.

30,000 yuan, accounting for 21% of adjusted income, significantly lower than the industry, corresponding to the expansion of the size of transactional financial assets + 33% / chain + + 1% to 176 billion US dollars, the annualized return on investment fell by 2 / chain.

6ppt / 3.

2ppt to 2.

3%.

  Brokerage business and market performance are converging.

3Q brokerage income is up to + 40% / mom -17% to 13.

4 trillion (vs.

Market transaction quota + 50% / 13% MoM), accounting for 27% of adjusted revenue, a higher proportion of large brokers.

  The investment bank performed comprehensively and steadily.

3Q investment bank income is + 63% / mo from -9% to 6 per annum.

300 million, accounting for 13% of adjusted income.

At present, the company has completed 成都桑拿网 the listing of 3 science and technology boards, 8 of which are in line (4 of which have already passed the conference), accounting for 5 of the companies in the rankings disclosed.

3%.

  Revenue from probes increased.

3Q net interest income + 35% / qoq + 35% to 14.

8 ppm: 1) The scale of other debt investments is + 13% to 588 trillion, and the balance of the two financial institutions is + 6% to 53 billion (market share?
5.

6%) drive income increase; 2) the balance of stock quality shrinks with the market (the company buys back resale assets-7% QoQ vs.

On-balance sheet equity balance of the industry (-8%).
  Asset management revenues fell month-on-month.
In the third quarter of 19 years, asset management income was +10 for ten years.

2% / ring ratio-35% to 3.

500 million yuan, accounting for only 7% of adjusted revenue (relative to industry asset management revenue exceeding flat / momentary substitution of 10%), the overall competitiveness still needs to be improved.

  Earnings forecasts and estimates are based on a downward revision of investment income assumptions and a 19/20 earnings 5 reduction.

9% / 6.

2% to 8.9 billion / 9.9 billion.

Monarch A / H was traded at 19e 1.

1x / 0.

7x P / B (19e 1 after excluding perpetual debt.

2x / 0.

8x).

Maintain the Monarch A Outperform rating and lower the target price by 8% to 21.

1 yuan, corresponding to 1.

5x 20e P / B (excluding perpetual debt) and 24% upside; Maintain Monarch H neutral rating and target price of 12.

8 Hong Kong dollars, corresponding to 0.

8x 20e P / B and 5% upside.

  The amount of risky transactions dropped significantly, the stock / bond market fluctuated significantly, and progress in capital market reform was gradually expected.

Depth-Company-Yingqu Technology (002925) IQOS Approved to Sell HNB in the US Will Accelerate Penetration

Deepin * Company * Yingqu Technology (002925) IQOS Approved to Sell HNB in the US Will Accelerate Penetration

On April 30, 2019, the FDA announced that it officially approved IQOS ‘PMTA (Pre-Market Application for Tobacco Products), allowing IQOS to heat non-burning tobacco equipment and related cartridge products (Marlboro heating rods, Marlboro silky mint heating rods and Marlboro fresh mint heating(Great) sold in the US market.

Key points of support levels The IQOS US market promotes accelerated volume.

IQOS is the world’s first heated non-combustible tobacco product launched by PMI, which has been popular in the Southeast Asian market.

From 2016 to 2017, PMI submitted MRTP (Tobacco Product Risk Improvement Application) and PMTA (Tobacco Pre-Market Application) to the FDA.

On April 30, 2019, the FDA announced that IQOS passed PMTA, allowing it to be legally sold in the US market, and acknowledged that the level of harmful substances produced by IQOS was lower than that of conventional combustible cigarettes, but could provide nicotine levels close to those of combustible cigarettes.

To prevent young people from accessing and accessing the product, the FDA has strict restrictions on marketing. For example, all packaging labels and advertisements must contain warnings about nicotine addiction. FDA must be notified of its advertising program and plans to restrict access to the product.Wait.

Although there are many restrictions, the United States, as the world’s largest electronic cigarette market, is expected to develop into the third largest HNB market.

As the world’s largest tobacco group, PMI has strong channels, brands, and marketing capabilities. It has begun to build an American IQOS offline sales channel. It has set up a marketing team and is ready to go. Now the gate is open and gradually penetrates the US market.

We estimate that IQOS in the United States is expected to achieve 4.97 / 816/783 million units in 2019-2021, which will effectively drive IQOS sales growth.

IQOS volume improved, and market share increased steadily.

According to PMI data, as of the first quarter of 2019, IQOS has entered 47 countries or regions around the world, with 10.4 million users (fully converted users are expected to account for 70%), an increase of 800,000 from the end of 2018, and a reduction of HTU of 11.5 billion.Support (YoY) +20.

2%) and sales of 12.7 billion (YoY + 34.

6%), the growth rate has improved significantly.

Overall, from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019, the share of cities except South Korea remained at 7.

8%, its market share in Japan, Europe, and the Soviet Union increased by 1, respectively.

1, 0

4pct, 1.

3 points to 16.

6%, 2.

1%, 3.

1%.

The global HNB regulatory policy aims to accelerate improvement.

Due to the late start of heating non-burning tobacco products, the regulatory regulations of various countries are still incomplete, and the market penetration rate is also lower than that of steam electronic cigarettes.

IQOS has been approved by the FDA for PMTA, which has proved to a certain extent that it is fungible and less harmful to traditional cigarettes, which is conducive to its entry into markets in other countries or regions, and promotes the improvement of regulatory regulations for heating non-burning tobacco products, therebyHNB’s global accelerated penetration drives the role.

Yingqu Technology is expected to usher in a turning point in performance.

Yingqu Technology reached a R & D cooperation with PMI in 2014 and participated in the design of IQOS2.

4 and IQOS 3 generation products, and through risk and Flextronics became a second-tier supplier of IQOS precision plastic parts. In 2018, IQOS-related revenue accounted for about 65% of the company’s total revenue.

In addition, the company also has Logitech, Provo Craft, Bosch, Honeywell and other world-renowned customers with strong R & D 深圳spa会所 capabilities.

Affected by IQOS destocking and Glo and other competing products in 2018, IQOS conversion volume shifted and company performance was affected.

As IQOS enters the US market in 2019, the volume is accelerating, and the volume and price of overlapping IQOS third-generation products are rising. The company is expected to usher in a turning point in performance.

It is estimated that we are optimistic about the promotion of the global HNB market penetration rate after the US market is opened. It is estimated that IQOS will achieve 4.97 / 816/783 million units in the United States in 2019-2021 and adjust the company’s revenue for 2019-2021 to 2.

25/2.

77/3.

17 yuan (previous forecast was 2).

22/2.

75/3.

43 yuan), an annual increase of 26.

7% / 23.
1% / 14.
6%, currently sustainable corresponding to 2019 PE20.

6X, raising the rating from increasing to buying.

The main risk facing the rating is that the new tobacco regulation is becoming more stringent, and IQOS sales have fallen short of expectations.

Shi Dashenghua (603026) Interim Report Commentary: EC Price Increase Drives Beautiful Performance Solvent Leader Is Expected to Continue High Growth

Shi Dashenghua (603026) Interim Report Commentary: EC Price Increase Drives Beautiful Performance Solvent Leader Is Expected to Continue High Growth
Event: The company released a performance forecast, and it is expected that net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 0 in the first half of 2019.85-1.1 trillion, or 2.2-2.500 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 65-83%, net profit after deducting non-attribution increased by 61-80%. Investment points: In line with expectations, Q2’s actual operating performance was basically flat compared with Q1.According to the company’s performance forecast, Q2 net profit is about 0.85-1.15 ppm, median 1.0 million.The company’s net profit attributable to its parent is 1.350,000 yuan, of which the change in fair value is 0.3 trillion, excluding its impact, the actual operating performance in the second quarter was basically flat.Compared with Q1, it is expected that the increase in the proportion of Q2 EC contribution performance will decrease, mainly because the EC loose order price started from 1 in March.30,000 yuan / ton rose to 2.77 million / ton, the EC price increase smoothly converted to performance, meanwhile, the DMC price decreased slightly from Q1. At the end of May, the company’s short-term maintenance, Q2 DMC 无锡桑拿网 contribution performance decreased, which was in line with expectations.Industrial-grade DMC prices have stabilized and rebounded in June. EC’s current price has remained stable at a high level. It is optimistic about the release of performance brought about by the resonance of DMC and EC in the second half of the year. Demand for new energy vehicles will stabilize and pick up, and EC is expected to remain available for planning.The major categories of new energy vehicle sales that exceeded expectations in June supplemented the rescue effect of the transitional transition. It is expected that the production and sales test will be ushered in July. We believe that after the buffer period, Q3 demand will gradually stabilize after being under pressure.The electrification of Internet-linked vehicles and operating vehicles and policies have stimulated the increase in personal consumption in cities with limited purchases.EC prices have increased rapidly since March, mainly due to a 30% contraction in supply-side capacity, which has led to a situation in which EC funding is sought.At present, the high price of EC is stable. We believe that EC still has defects. Considering its inventory cycle, we believe that what really determines the EC price is the expected supply and demand layout of EC in the next 1-2 quarters.May be stocked in advance, EC prices gradually increased.The company’s existing EC capacity2.6 For the first time, each EC price increase of 1 million per ton contributes about 2 to the company’s annualized performance.0 million yuan, bringing breakthrough performance flexibility. Optimistic about the rise in solvent DMC in the second half of the year.The market before 2018 generally believed that DMC had excess capacity, and its prices were highly convergent with raw material substitutes (PO). In the third quarter of 2018, DMC and PO formed a trend divergence, mainly due to the synthesis of new energy vehicles and non-phosgene PC.Driven by demand.From January to May this year, DMC digested inventory, prices continued to fall, and prices rose in June. The trend was similar to last year.In the end, the supply side is almost almost the same as last year, and the battery side on the demand side is still growing. At the same time, 30 potential potential production capacity of non-phosgene PC synthesis is about to be released. Full production corresponds to 12 to DMC demand.The PC project has been started recently, and the demand side is about to be released. It is expected that the DMC will be tightly balanced, and the price increase caused by Q3-Q4 or existing supply-demand mismatch. The battery-level DMC industry has a relatively high concentration, and the price difference with industrial-grade products is expected to widen.At present, the price of battery-level DMC is about 7,600 yuan / ton, and the price of the export-side long-term association is higher. The price difference between battery-level and industrial-grade DMC was close to 1,000 yuan / ton in the same period last year.The products are only available from Shida, Haike and a few suppliers. The industrial DMC has scarce production capacity and better demand, so the price is firm.It is expected that when the demand side reaches a critical point, battery-level DMC is expected to provide the expected search, and the price difference with industrial-level DMC is expected to widen.The company’s existing DMC capacity12.5 benchmark, accounting for about 25-30% of the industry’s effective production capacity, the proportion of battery-level products exceeds peers, will fully benefit from the performance flexibility brought by DMC price increases. Profit forecast and investment grade: We believe that 1) it is not the change in short-term demand that affects EC prices, but the expectations of its layout in the next 1-2 quarters. We are still optimistic about the demand for new energy vehicles in Q4.EC prices may further increase; 2) DMC gradually tightens and balances, and the demand increase brought by PC synthesis will promote Q3-Q4 industrial-grade DMC price increases; 3) Battery-level DMC prices are firm and concentrated, and the demand side is expected to reach criticalPoint, the spread with industrial grade will widen.The company’s 2019-2021 net profit is expected to be 5 respectively.2/6.1/7.0 million yuan, corresponding PE is 12/11/9 times, maintaining the buying level. Risk reminder: The company’s DMC and EC product prices are lower than expected; the demand for new energy vehicles is lower than expected; raw material risks; and broad-based systemic risks.

China Southern Airlines (600029) Semi-annual Report Comment: Steady earnings of main business basically meet expectations

China Southern Airlines (600029) Semi-annual Report Comment: Steady earnings of main business basically meet expectations

Event China Southern Airlines disclosed its 2019 interim report and achieved operating income of 729 in the first half of the year.

4 billion, an annual increase of 7.

97%, net profit attributable to mother 16.

900 million, down 20 every year.

92%.

In the second quarter, operating income was 353.

100 million, an annual increase of 5.

54%, net profit attributable to mother to -9.

600 million, expected to increase by 5.

5 billion.

The scale continued to expand, and the quality of revenue declined slightly. The company’s scale continued to expand in the first half of the year, and even affected by the full grounding and suspension of B737MAX suspension, ASK even grew at a growth rate of 10.

1%, RPK increased by 10.

4%, load factor 82.

65%, a year increase of 0.

21 points.

As the macro economy is in a trough each year, the company’s passenger kilometer revenue in the first half of the year is zero.

4782 yuan, a slight decrease of one year.

58%.

Oil prices have a slight advantage, accounting standards have changed the cost structure, and unit non-oil costs have dropped significantly. In the first half of the year, the ex-factory price of aviation kerosene has been 4913 yuan / ton, which has been slightly reduced by 0 repeatedly.

9%, but thanks to the company’s increase in the number of aircraft seats and longer distances, the unit fuel cost of ASK decreased by 3.

4%.

In terms of non-oil costs, depreciation expenses have increased significantly due to the consolidation of operating leases. 46.
.

4 billion, an increase of 71%, while the rental expenses were significantly subdivided.

400 million, a decrease of 82%.

Overall, the non-oil cost of the company’s unit ASK in the first half of the year still fell3.

54%, and even add leaseback interest, the non-oil cost of comparable caliber units has also been optimized to a certain extent.

The sharp increase in rental income has led to a significant increase in financial expenses. The deduction of foreign exchange profits has reduced the company’s sales by 23%. The management expense ratio has remained stable, of which the sales expense ratio was 4.

57%, a decrease of 0 every year.

31 points, management (including research and development) expense ratio 2.

54%, a slight increase of 0 a year.

11 points.

As a result of changes in accounting standards, the company’s lease fraud factor increased significantly by $ 1.4 billion, while at the same time it was brought down by a decrease in valuation.

12 trillion exchange losses, the company’s financial expense ratio reached 4.

45%, increase by 1 every year.

43pct, withholding financial expense ratio 4.

02%, rising by 1 every year.

63 points.
The other statement items are basically stable, and the total profit of foreign exchange deductions.
1.2 billion, down 22 each year.

98%.

Subsequent oil price advantages have gradually become apparent, and the Civil Aviation Development Fund has reduced its burden. We continue to be optimistic about the gradual performance until the current oil price is hovering around $ 60 / barrel. We linearly extrapolate that the unit oil price over 3-4 quarters may fall by 11%.At the same time, it will supplement the Civil Aviation Development Fund to reduce the burden. We continue to be optimistic about the performance and the performance of foreign exchange deduction may increase significantly.

Investment proposal Daxing Airport will be put into production soon. The company will build Daxing Airport to build Beijing’s core hub. By 2025, it is expected that more than 200 aircraft will 天津夜网 be launched at Daxing Airport with more than 900 daily flights.

About the previous report, taking into account the apparent depreciation of the exchange rate and fluctuations in oil prices, we have lowered our profit forecast for 2019-2021 from 84.

4 billion, 102.

100 million, 128.

400 million are down 43.

2%, 29.

3%, 31.

4% to 48.

0 billion, 72.

200 million, 88.

0 billion, EPS is 0.

39 yuan, 0.

59 yuan, 0.

72 yuan.

Maintain “Buy” rating since 10.

65 yuan lowered the target price of 16.

9% to 8.

85 yuan, corresponding to 15 times the PE valuation of 2020 performance.

Risk warning: Macroeconomic growth exceeds expectations, oil prices skyrocket, exchange rate estimates decline, and security incidents

CITIC Securities (600030) Company Comments: CITIC Securities Interim Report YOY + 16% Meets Expectations

CITIC Securities (600030) Company Comments: CITIC Securities Interim Report YOY + 16% Meets Expectations

Investment Highlights: CITIC Securities disclosed the interim results announcement, and the company’s net profit attributable to its mother increased by 15 in the first half of 2019.

83%, in line with our expectations.

The country’s positioning of the capital market is still at an historical high. As a leader in the industry, CITIC Securities has directly benefited from the development of the capital market.

We expect the company’s 19-year performance to grow 57% annually to $ 14.7 billion and maintain a “Buy” rating.

CITIC Securities net profit attributable to mother increased by 15 in 19H1.

83%, in line with expectations CITIC Securities’s first half of 2019 operating income of 218.

5.9 billion, an increase of 9 per year.

33%, net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company64.

46 ppm, an increase of 15 per year.

83%.

At the end of the period, the shareholders’ equity attributable to the parent company was 1560.

760,000 yuan, an increase of 1 over 18 years.

92%.

The company’s expected average net asset income in the first half of the year increased by 4.

11%, an increase of 0 from 18 years.

46 units.

The operating income of Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the company.

12 ppm, a 10-year increase2.

08%; net profit 5.

0.94 million yuan, down by 0 every year.

83%.

The growth rate of CITIC Securities’ reported results is basically similar to the monthly financial data maximization net profit growth rate.

In addition, considering the impact of the company’s high base in the first half of 2018, we believe that CITIC Securities’ reported results growth rate is in line with expectations.

CITIC Securities disposes of CITIC Construction Investment’s equity, which is expected to increase 19E net assets by 2-3%. According to the announcement of CITIC Construction Investment on the evening of June 25, CITIC Securities plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 1 through auction transactions.

5.3 billion shares, that is, not more than 2% of the total share capital of CITIC Construction Investment; by holding less than 3 shares through block trading.

0.6 billion shares, or less than 4% of the total share capital of CITIC.

For bulk reductions, the period of reductions will be from July 1, 2019 to December 27, 2019.

According to our calculations, the disposal of the shares of CITIC Construction Investment will increase the net asset ratio of CITIC Securities to 2-3%.

After disposing of CITIC Construction Investment’s equity, CITIC Securities can release capital and improve capital utilization efficiency to meet its own business development needs.

CITIC Securities is a leader in the securities industry and will benefit from the development of the capital market. At present, the country ‘s positioning of the capital market is still at a historically high level. The 武汉夜网论坛 Science and Technology Innovation Board is about to hold the first antique company listing ceremony on July 22.Gold has a competitive advantage.

“Equity Classification” promotes the classified management of securities companies. Leading concentration and differentiated development are industry trends.

Opening to the outside world on an equal footing is one of the gradual and heavy implementation of a package of reforms. In the future, we should be able to see more policy dividends on the scale of business.

Investment suggestion: We expect CITIC Securities’ attributable net profit in 2019 to be US $ 14.7 billion, an annual growth of 57%.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: The policy falls below expectations, market risk risks, restructuring plans are suspended, risks are suspended or cancelled

Tianmu Lake (603136) Quarterly Report Review: Third Quarterly Report Exceeds Expectations, Expects Expansion to Land

Tianmu Lake (603136) Quarterly Report Review: Third Quarterly Report Exceeds Expectations, Expects Expansion to Land

Event: The company released three quarterly reports and achieved revenue 3 in 2019Q1-3.

8.7 billion / + 5.

31%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

15 billion / + 21.

48%, net profit after deducting non-return to mother 1.

1.3 billion / + 24.

43%, achieving an unexpected growth of the trend.

In 19Q3, the company achieved an unexpected growth against the trend: revenue increased by 12 per year.

8%, with performance increasing by 34 per year.

3%.

The company’s 19Q3 revenue was 1.

6.7 billion, an increase of 12 previously.

8%, demand growth in the peak season (Q1 / Q2 growth rate were -1.

4% / 1.

4%); net profit attributable to mother was 61.23 million, an increase of 34 over the years.

3%, performance accelerated quarter by quarter (Q1 / Q2 growth rate was -14.

9% / 23.

3%).

The growth rate of net profit is much higher than that of camping income, mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin and the decline in expense ratio.

The third quarter is the peak of performance release (about 30% of revenue and more than 40% of net profit), which is the basis for high growth with deterministic performance.

19Q3 gross margin 杭州桑拿网 rose by 2 per second.

0 points to 73.

7%, during which the rate of expenses dropped by 9 per second.

8 points to 18.

0%, the net profit attributable to mothers extended by 5.

9 points to 36.

7%.

19Q3 gross profit margin 73.

72% / + 2.

0pct, it is expected that the gross profit rate of single products will increase in the peak season and the product mix will continue to be optimized.

The expense ratio during the third quarter of 19 was 17.

98% /-9.

8pct, of which the sales / management / financial expense ratio is 6.

92% / 12.

70% /-1.

64%, down 4 respectively.

4/3.

1/2.4pct. With the optimization of the company’s sales channels and management efficiency, the sales and management expense ratio decreased rapidly. The financial expenses did not increase significantly due to the increase in 北京夜网 Q2 expenses, but with the issuance of 300 million convertible bonds, the financial expense ratio will improve and pick up.

In 19Q3, net cash flow from operations increased by 15.

3%, net operating cash flow / net profit is 1.

6 times.

In 19Q3, net cash flow from operations increased by 15.

3% to 1.

07 billion (Q1 / 2Q2 growth rate of 17% / -26% respectively), can be significantly improved.

However, due to the increase in prepayment for the current period and the expansion of the scale, the net cash flow from operations was not growing as fast as the net profit, and the net cash flow / net profit ratio decreased.

57 times slightly lower than the same period last year.

80 times.

The company’s expenditures increased in the fourth quarter and increased by 1 in the first three quarters.

The net operating cash flow of 8.8 billion will provide protection for the fourth quarter expenditure.

The company’s IPO investment project is about to open next year, and the convertible bonds will be officially issued shortly. The project will be completed in the next year. The expansion in different places will be steadily advanced, and the expansion from 1 to N will be realized in the future.

The amount of construction projects under construction in 19Q3 was 51.37 million, mainly due to the construction of the second phase of the Yushui Hot Spring project raised by the IPO, which will gradually open for business next year; convertible bonds will be issued shortly afterwards, and the two projects will be renovated in the first phase of the hot spring / Nanshan Xiaozhai IIFunds raised in this period will be in place and are expected to be completed in 2020/2021 respectively.

In addition, the company’s ability to deeply cultivate a single scenic spot has been verified, and its strategic focus has been on “light luxury leisure destination operators”. It has seized high-potential markets through acquisitions, mergers, and entrusted management, and has deployed the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and Chengdu and Chongqing., Wuhan, Changsha and other core urban agglomerations, achieving off-site market expansion from 1 to N.

Profit forecast and investment suggestions: It is estimated that the company’s net profit after deducting non-profit in 19-21 will be 1.

29/1.

87/2.

6.6 billion, a growth rate of 37% / 45% / 42%, a CAGR of 44%, corresponding to a PE of 21/14/10 times.

We are optimistic about the long-term growth of the company’s expansion in different places and the safety margin of the merger, and maintain the “buy” level.

Risk reminder: the risk of attraction tickets and ropeway charging standards, force majeure risk, change risk, franchise renewal risk, security risk, macroeconomic risk.

Gemdale Group (600383): Uneven settlement distribution drags down sales and maintains rapid growth

Gemdale Group (600383): Uneven settlement distribution drags down sales and maintains rapid growth
Gemdale Group announced the third quarter of 2019 report, the company achieved operating income of 425 in the third quarter of 2019.3.2 billion, an annual increase of 26.91%; net profit attributable to mother 54.25 ppm, a 10-year increase3.41%; basic return 1.20 yuan. Comments Due to the small settlement in the third quarter, single-quarter results increased.The company achieved operating income of 425 in the first three quarters of 2019.32 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.91%; net profit attributable to mother 54.25 ppm, a 10-year increase3.41%.In a single quarter, the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 8 respectively.95%, -37.10%, the performance growth mainly comes from: 1) the company’s settlement items decreased, and revenue growth was only 8.95%, it also weighed down on investment returns.2) Period expenses have increased. As of the end of the third quarter of 2019, the period expenses reached 10.28%, an increase of 2 per year.7 averages, an increase of 2.2 units; of which the sales rate is 2.6%, increasing by 0 every year.8 units; financial rate 1.3%, an increase of 2 per year.2 units.Company net profit 19.5%, a decline of 3 per year.5 units; 3) The area of prepaid land in the third quarter of 2019 overlaps, and the tax and surcharge in the first three quarters of 2019 will be 54.40,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.10,000 yuan.As of the end of the third quarter of 2019, the company received 855 accounts in advance.26 ppm, an 武汉夜网论坛 increase of 27 in ten years.96%, 1 of 2018 revenue.69 times, strong future locking. Rapid sales growth lays the foundation for future performance.On January 9, 2019, the company gradually realized the contracted area of 710.30,000 square meters, an annual increase of 22.44%; the contract amount is 1418.40,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.70%.The company seized the sales windows of first- and second-tier cities and deeply cultivated core cities. It has achieved 75% of its target of 190 billion sales. It is expected that the tempo of gradually pushing up the market in the fourth quarter will accelerate, and the company will be able to complete its annual sales target with great probability. Positive investment and breakthrough in urban layout.From January to September, the company took land construction area of 8.35 million square meters, an annual increase of 28%; the amount of land acquisition was 65.1 billion US dollars, a decrease of more than 4%, the amount of land acquisition accounted for 46% of the sales amount, and the average floor price was 7799 yuan / square meter.It accounts for 39% of the current average selling price, and the gross profit of future projects is expected.As of the end of the first half of 2019, the company has deployed in 54 cities across the country, entering 4 new cities compared with the end of 2018, with a total land reserve of approximately 47.6 million square meters, of which approximately 80% are in first- and second-tier cities. Abundant cash in hand, significant financing advantages, and continued decline in leverage.As of the end of the March 2019 quarter, the company held 431 monetary funds.50 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.72%.The company initially issued a 30 trillion ultra short-term securities bond with a coupon rate of only 3.20%, obviously obvious financing advantage.As of the end of the March 2019 quarter, the company’s asset and debt restructuring76.4%, a decline of 0 per year.1 average; 60% reduction in net viscosity.1%, a decline of 5 per year.4 units. Investment suggestion: Gemdale Corporation has ample land reserves and high sales growth. The two wings of “business + finance” are icing on the cake, and its future performance will steadily increase. The company adheres to the “first-line + core second-tier” urban layout.The company’s EPS is expected to be 2 in 2019-2021.26, 2.80, 3.34 yuan, the corresponding PE is 5.25, 4.24, 3.56 times, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: industry sales fluctuations; policy adjustments leading to operational risks; changes in financing environment; corporate operating risks; exchange rate fluctuation risks; shed reform monetization is not up to expectations.

Guangzhou Restaurant (603043) 2019 Interim Report Review: Food Business Sells Well, Awaits Mid-Autumn Festival News

Guangzhou Restaurant (603043) 2019 Interim Report Review: Food Business Sells Well, Awaits Mid-Autumn Festival News

Core point of view 2019H1 revenue appreciation20.

22%, deducting non-net profit fell by 4.

98%, revenue from food manufacturing / catering business increased by 23 each.

4% / 14.

01%.

Because Mid-Autumn Festival is earlier than last year,杭州桑拿 advance receipts increase by 302 every year.

32%.

The first phase of the construction of the Xiangtan Food Production Base project is expected to effectively increase the capacity of moon cakes and fillings in 2019H2.

Maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-2021 to 1.

10/1.

40/1.

69 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

   Revenue growth was steady, and non-net profit was reduced by 4.

98%.

19H1 company achieved revenue 9.

5.1 billion (+20.

22%), net profit attributable to mother 64.3 million yuan (+10.

19%), part of the net non-profit is mainly affected by changes in accounting estimates of about 10.03 million yuan.

In a single quarter, 19Q2 companies achieved revenue4.

1.9 billion (+20.

77%), net profit attributable to mothers was 187.9 billion (-4.

92%), performance fluctuations are affected by the rapid growth in expense.

   Mooncake advances have increased significantly, and frozen foods have declined significantly month-on-month.

In terms of business segments, the income of the food manufacturing business / catering business of the company in 19H1 was 5 respectively.

90/3.

3.7 billion, an increase of 23.

4% / 14.

01%.

In the food sector, the income of mooncake series products / quick frozen foods / other products was 34.21 million yuan / 2.

60 ppm / 3.

03 trillion, with the same increase of 107.

99% / 22.

77% / 17.

63%, the limiting factor affects Q2 income of frozen food increased by 11.

4%, about 32 in Q1 peak season.

The 7% growth rate dropped significantly.

19H1 advance funds received3.

8.3 billion (+302.32%), mainly due to the Mid-Autumn Festival ahead of last year, the advance payment of moon cakes increased significantly.

   Gross profit margin rose slightly, and R & D investment increased.

The consolidated gross profit margin of the company in 19H1 was 47.

78% (+0.

05pct), selling expenses 27.

58% (-1.

24pcts), management expenses cost 11.

64% (+1.

26pcts), mainly due to the increase in labor costs and equity incentive expenses, reducing research and development expenses2.

28% (+1.

26pcts), mainly due to the company’s continuous investment in product patents and technological innovation, resulting in significant increase in research and development costs.

   Expansion in different places has significant benefits and orderly release of production capacity.

19H1 company’s territories outside Guangdong Province earned 91.45 million yuan (+45.

34%), the expansion in different places has begun to bear fruit.

The first phase of the Xiangtan Food Production Base project is completed. It is expected to contribute part of the mooncake and filling production capacity, but the overall impact will be greater.

From the perspective of reservations, affected by the increase in raw material costs, the company ‘s active price increase on the C-end sales of core mooncake products is about 3% to 5% this year, and it overlaps with the sales revenue contribution of Taotaoju mooncakes.Under the circumstances, the overall income maintained rapid growth.

   Risk factors: insufficient utilization of capacity, less-than-expected expansion outside the province, and intensified market competition.

   Investment suggestion: The company’s offline channels are all over Guangzhou, and the e-commerce network spreads across the country. It will expand production capacity through acquisitions and new bases, and the release of sales after combining production and sales is highly certain.

The increase in short-term R & D efforts and the increase in the prices of raw 北京桑拿洗浴保健materials for the quick-freezing business will cause some pressure on the cost side. Medium- and long-term brand advantages and expansion of production capacity channels provide support for stable fundamental growth. Distribution and incentives are combined with employee benefits.

Maintaining 2019-2021 net profit forecasts are 4 respectively.

45 billion / 5.

65 billion / 6.

84 trillion, corresponding to EPS 1.

10/1.

40/1.

69 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.