Shanxi Fen Liquor (600809): The perfect ending looks even older
Recently participated in the Fenjiu Distributors Conference & Investor Exchange Meeting. The company’s three-year responsibility has been successfully concluded. The reform will be further deepened in the future. The long-term goal is to achieve the rejuvenation of fenjiu.Fen, the strategy shifted from “grasping the middle of the two heads” to “pulling the middle and high control the bottom.”
Some investors are worried about the sustainability of the company’s future growth. We believe that Fenjiu has reached the national brand gene. This round of expansion outside the province will enjoy the bonus of distributors focusing on high-quality brands. There is still a lot of room for expansion outside the province.Focusing on high-end blue-and-white series, the market attracts tilt towards blue and white, and continuously improves the height and cultural influence of the Fenjiu brand. The proportion of blue and white will continue to increase and become the main driving force for the company’s revenue and performance. Revenue will continue to maintain a steady growth in the coming year.
Considering that competition will intensify in the coming year, it is expected that the company can maintain a reasonable inventory level, and at the same time work more closely with China Resources, further internal reforms, and steadily advance its strategic expansion in the depth of the market.
Slightly adjusted EPS 2 for 19-20 years.
81 yuan (2 last time).
64 yuan), currently corresponding to only 31x in 20 years, the reform bonus is worth assessing the premium, given 20x 35x, target price of 98 yuan, maintaining the “strongly recommended-A” rating.
Feedback from the Reform Wine Dealers Conference & Investor Exchange Meeting: The reform was unanimously confirmed and the revival was at the time.
1) Review of the past three years: three billion-level market segments have been formed, and the marketing team has grown from more than 400 to 4,000. In November 2019, the sales company exceeded 10 billion; all the main sales products achieved priced sales; the cabinet system was initially changedThe organizational structure is adjusted to a vertical mode; the internal and external income ratio of the province is 44:56, the middle and high-end ratio is 66%, and the high-end blue and white is growing rapidly.
2) Long-term future goals: to achieve the rejuvenation of Fenjiu through “three breakthroughs, three new”: first, rely on technological progress and new development in quality improvement; second, rely on cultural marketing, new breakthroughs in market expansion; third, overcomeManagement innovation and new corporate governance capacity building must be improved.
3) Target for 2020: Steady progress, focus on blue and white, strategy change from “grasping the middle of the two headbands” to “pulling the middle and high control bottom”.
Focusing on blue and white next year, Bofen controls the volume, and the strategy shifts to “pulling the middle and high control bottom”.
Since 2017, the company has always adhered to the “grasp the middle of the two heads” strategy, with high-end blue and white flowers holding high and playing high, and low-end Bofen cultivating fragrance-based consumption alternatives, and achieved significant results.
Looking forward to the future, the company will focus more on high-end blue and white series and continue to raise the brand height. In 2020, it will focus on blue and white and control the volume of Fenfen. Next year’s goal is to increase the blue and white 20 and 30 by 1 billion to 5 billion (sales caliber).Volume, maintaining a steady upward trend, there will be no substantial growth.
For the blue and white series, the company’s future operating mode and regional focus will change: 1) Blue 20 and 30 will transform independent contracts; 2) Regionally, blue and white 30 will focus on 50 cities across the country next year, and 20 will focus onTo 100 cities, the core target market is separated, the core terminals are separated, and the core actions are separated; 3) The channels are more detailed, and Qing 30 is more inclined to buy products.In addition to the core products, they may be built around banquet seats in the future.
The company’s strategy is clear and the channels are detailed. It is expected that the blue and white flowers will maintain a high growth rate next year.
Looking at the future development space of Fenjiu from three perspectives: 1) Heavy blue and white flowers will become the core driving force for future performance.
Under the background of the continuous concentration of the liquor industry to brand enterprises, the company’s strategy has shifted to “plugging in the middle and high control bottom”, and will focus on high-end blue and white in the future. We believe that the company’s move is the correct way to continuously improve the height of the Fen liquor brand and promote the return of the Fen bossThe growth of the blue and white series will become the core driving force for the company’s future revenue and performance.
2) The extra-provincial space is still large.
The scale of the company has grown rapidly outside the province, and some investors have expressed changes in the company’s future external expansion of the province. We believe that Fenjiu has a national brand gene. This round of expansion outside the province will enjoy the bonus of distributors focusing on high-quality brands.There is still plenty of room for expansion.
First of all, in the surrounding Shanxi market, except for Henan and Shandong, the growth rate has improved. Outer Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Hebei still maintain high growth rates. Second, the company has also increased its market to the south of the Yangtze River, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Guangdong.In March, the East China strategy of “crossing the Yangtze River, breaking East China, and occupying Shanghai” was clearly put forward. In 19 years, the Shanghai market target was 100 million and the Zhejiang market target 1.
500 million, Jiangsu market target of more than 100 million, Guangdong market target 1.
The company will continue to consolidate its advantages and improve its share in the surrounding Shanxi market. It will increase the number of cities in the markets 夜来香体验网 outside Shanxi to cultivate the potential for consumption and future development.
3) The mechanism has been continuously improved, and the endogenous power has been enhanced to ensure long-term development.
The company’s reform continued to advance, internally strengthened contractual management, performance appraisal contractualization, and cadre employment contractualization. At the same time, it actively tried employee shareholding and equity incentives to fully stimulate the company’s internal autonomy and vitality.
At the beginning of the 18th, the company dated China Resources War Investment, and actively cooperated with China Resources in strategic coordination to further optimize the corporate governance structure and ensure long-term development.
Investment suggestion: Fenjiu revival is just at the time, optimistic about the amount of young flowers and reforms in the coming years, and maintain the “strongly recommended -A” level.
The reform of the company continued to advance, the mechanism became more market-oriented, and the surrounding Shanxi market continued to exert its strength.
Looking forward to the coming year, the company will focus on high-end blue and white, “grasp the middle of the two heads” to “plug the middle and high-control bottom”, the market shifted to blue and white, blue and white is expected to become the main driver of revenue and performance.
Slightly adjusted EPS 2 for 19-20 years.
81 yuan (2 last time).
(64 yuan), currently corresponding to 31x in 20 years, the reform bonus is worth assessing the premium, given 20x 35x, target price of 98 yuan, maintaining the “strong recommendation-A” rating.
Risk Warning: The reform is not up to expectations, and competition outside the province is fierce.